The AGOA Agreement is expiring: more than 550,000 jobs are at risk

Mis à jour le 22 May 2026

The Crucial Economic Stakes of the AGOA Agreement’s Expiration in 2026

For over two decades, the AGOA Agreement has been a cornerstone of international trade between several African countries and the United States. By allowing these nations to export certain products duty-free, it has fostered economic growth, created jobs, and boosted investment in the region. However, its expiration in September 2025, which has now arrived, is raising increasing concerns about the disastrous consequences that a non-renewal could have in 2026. The threat looms of more than 550,000 job losses and a significant decline in the competitiveness of African economies, particularly in key sectors such as textiles, agriculture, and manufacturing. This situation is all the more alarming as political and economic uncertainty, exacerbated by the diplomatic crisis and administrative dysfunctions, hinders the ability of beneficiary nations to develop effective alternative strategies. Dependence on the AGOA Agreement, in a global context of declining foreign direct investment, highlights economic fragility and the need for collective awareness to mitigate this potential loss. Market stability, job preservation, and these countries’ ability to integrate into global value chains will be directly affected.

Economic sectors vulnerable to the end of the AGOA Agreement: a threat to employment and growthThe sectors most affected by the end of the AGOA AgreementThose most heavily reliant on exports to the United States will undoubtedly be affected. Among them are textiles, agriculture, and various manufacturing sectors, which have experienced rapid growth since the establishment of this free trade zone. The Malagasy textile industry, for example, is one of the most important sectors, providing over 150,000 direct and 400,000 indirect jobs, a significant portion of which are located in the free trade zones of the capital and Antsirabe. The loss of their competitive advantage could lead to factory closures, the elimination of thousands of jobs, and a profound disruption of local supply chains.

Specifically, in 2023, Malagasy textile exports totaled $510 million, with 12.9% destined for the American market. The loss of this preferential tariff could drastically reduce these flows, with immediate repercussions for the national economy. The situation is exacerbated by reduced demand, a slowdown in foreign investment, and the freezing of certain development projects linked to the growth of these industrial sectors. The fragility of these sectors therefore necessitates considering alternative strategies, such as developing regional partnerships or diversifying markets, in order to avoid a major social crisis. The risks are very real.

Socio-economic consequences of the deterioration of the American market for African countriesMore than just an economic challenge, the end of the

AGOA Agreement

This risks exacerbating social insecurity in many African states, where exports are a major source of income and employment. The loss of preferential access to the American market could lead to a drop in household income, increased unemployment, and a deterioration of social conditions, particularly in rural and industrial areas. The crisis could also influence political parameters, fueling a rise in social tensions and citizen demands, as evidenced by the recent mobilization of Malagasy workers.The fragility of this situation also reveals the risk of a retreat from growth momentum in a context of precarious political stability. The contraction of export flows could slow post-pandemic reconstruction and hinder investments aimed at modernizing industrial and logistical infrastructure. The development of effective public policies thus becomes a vital issue for safeguarding what remains of the African economic fabric in a climate of growing uncertainty. International solidarity and the collaboration of local actors are essential to mitigate these impacts.

Diversification strategies to compensate for the end of the privileged partnership

Faced with the announced end of the

AGOA AgreementIt is imperative for African countries to restructure their trade strategies. Diversifying export markets is a pressing necessity to avoid exclusive dependence on the US market. Cooperation with the European Union, China, or the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) could offer promising alternatives. Furthermore, innovation in agricultural, technological, and industrial sectors is a lever for increasing competitiveness and reducing vulnerability to external shocks.

According to a Brookings Institution study, several countries have already begun this transition by implementing strategies to strengthen textiles and agribusiness, or to prioritize upgrading their exports. Establishing more dynamic free trade zones and incentives for private investment must become a priority. Developing a resilient local economy could then help mitigate the devastating effects of the agreement’s termination. The Key Role of Regional and International Actors in Supporting Employment and Sustainable Trade

To overcome the upcoming crises related to the expiry of the AGOA Agreement, collaboration between regional actors, beneficiary nations, and international organizations is essential. Bodies such as the African Union and the African Development Bank must play a leading role in facilitating appropriate financing, vocational training, and the promotion of sustainable investments. Furthermore, cooperation with bilateral partners could foster concrete industrialization or logistics modernization projects.

Community initiatives aimed at fostering economic resilience, while integrating social and environmental concerns, must be intensified. Like Madagascar, which is facing a fragile political context and a social crisis, these efforts will be crucial to preserving employment and supporting balanced growth. Strategic coordination among these actors is key to mitigating the adverse effects of the end of the AGOA Agreement in 2026.Concrete measures to preserve employment and stimulate economic recovery

In this context of uncertainty, the implementation of concrete measures appears imperative to preserve employment and ensure economic recovery. The creation of emergency funds, the development of vocational training programs, and incentives for local manufacturing can be effective tools to mitigate the impacts of this crisis. The modernization of logistics infrastructure, particularly through public-private partnerships, should also be encouraged to strengthen the competitiveness of African exports. Here is aessential list of priority actions:

💼 Promote market diversification

🚧 Improve the quality of exported products

📚 Strengthen vocational training 🌱 Promote local production and sustainable supply chains 🤝 Consolidate regional and international partnerships

• The role of public policies in anticipating and managing the crisis related to the end of the AGOA Agreement
• African governments must adopt a proactive approach to anticipate the effects of the end of the
• AGOA Agreement
• The formulation of bold economic policies, accompanied by structural reforms, is essential to strengthening the resilience of the industrial sector. Stimulating domestic investment, reducing bureaucratic barriers, and improving the business climate are all levers for supporting competitiveness.

Furthermore, strategic communication on these issues must be strengthened to mobilize public opinion and encourage support for reforms. Transparency and citizen participation must be prioritized to ensure prudent management of the transition, while avoiding a sudden social or economic collapse. Regional coordination is also crucial to ensure the coherence of actions and maximize their impact during this critical period.

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What is the main consequence of the end of the AGOA Agreement for Africa in 2026?

How can African countries prepare for the end of the AGOA Agreement?

They must diversify their markets, strengthen their industrial sectors, and regionalize their trade strategies to limit the impact of this disruption.

Which sectors are most threatened by this deadline?

The textile, agricultural, and manufacturing industries, which are heavily dependent on preferential tariffs, will be the most affected.

What actions can be taken to support employment during this transition?

Developing vocational training programs, revitalizing local production, and activating regional partnerships will be crucial to limiting job losses.