Madagascar: Understanding the Relentless Chain of Crises and Exploring Possible Solutions (Part 2: Towards Exit Scenarios)

Mis à jour le 21 May 2026

For several decades, Madagascar has been at a crossroads, facing a succession of crises that hinder its development and fuel a cycle of chronic instability. The 2025 crisis was the latest stage in a chain of events that, according to local research, resembles a pressure cooker ready to explode. Rampant poverty, political instability, and systemic corruption are all factors contributing to a context where resolving these tensions has become an absolute necessity. The already precarious situation highlights the structural fragility of the Malagasy system. The crisis is not merely a temporary phenomenon but reflects a profound failure of the economic and institutional model, making any attempt at a way out complex, though not impossible. Madagascar’s situation in 2026 thus illustrates an ability to predict these cycles, while revealing the urgent need to break the chain in order to foster genuine sustainable development. The question remains: what exit strategies offer the prospect of a more stable future? The Deep Roots of Crises in Madagascar: A Rigorous Systemic Chain The crises in Madagascar, often perceived as the result of isolated events, are in reality governed by a systemic dynamic. According to the report by Hal SciencesThis succession of crises can be explained by a series of structural failures: weak governance, widespread corruption, a commodity-dependent economy, and chronic institutional instability. These elements mutually fuel a vicious cycle where each crisis acts as a catalyst for the next, making any immediate solution difficult. In particular, extreme poverty and social division exacerbate these failures, as they foster distrust of institutions and cultivate an ecosystem conducive to abuses. Furthermore, the disintegration of political actors due to internal power struggles further weakens Madagascar’s capacity to implement lasting reforms. A thorough understanding of these mechanisms appears to be an essential prerequisite for developing an exit strategy.

Exit Scenarios: From Continuity to the Necessary Break for Madagascar

Faced with this complexity, what paths can lead Madagascar toward lasting stability? The comparative literature, particularly the analysis of the research file, proposes two main types of scenarios. The first option, that of continuity, consists of perpetuating a failing institutional management system, hoping for an economic upturn or an electoral success. However, this path proves perilous, as it only reinforces the cycle of poverty and instability, a seductive siren but a source of profound suffering. The second option, more ambitious but difficult, implies a radical break, with profound reforms and a new form of governance. It presupposes a collective commitment around a republican pactwhere elites, civil society, and citizens unite to rebuild the institutional and economic system. Implementing such reforms requires clear communication, firm political will, and genuine mobilization of all key stakeholders.

The Levers of Transformation: How to Build Sustainable Solutions in Madagascar Sustainable solutions for Madagascar must be based on three fundamental pillars. The first concerns profound governance reform, through the gradual reduction of dependence on corrupt elites and the establishment of an independent and effective judicial system. The second concerns economic diversification, by encouraging job creation in high value-added sectors, while effectively regulating capital flight. When examining Madagascar’s economic situation, one notices that dependence on raw materials and a low-skilled workforce exacerbate poverty. It is imperative to promote inclusive growth, mirroring the alternative economic model that could benefit the entire population. Finally, the third lever concerns decentralization, which would help curb the concentration of power and better distribute resources, thus hindering predatory practices. A key step: revitalizing institutions and overhauling the constitutional framework Political stability cannot emerge without a profound overhaul of the institutional framework. The Constitution, often contested in Madagascar, must be rewritten with a view to consolidating rights and limiting excessive executive powers.

Constitutional revision should prioritize a clear separation of powers, strengthened accountability mechanisms, and safeguards against any authoritarian drift. The establishment of an independent electoral and judicial oversight body is also essential to ensure free and transparent elections. Overhauling these elements is also crucial for fostering public trust, which is essential for stability and national cohesion.

The Role of Civil Society and Local Actors in Crisis Prevention

In Madagascar, the engagement of civil society appears to be an essential lever for defusing the cycle of crises. According to the MSN report, the active participation of citizens in the political process increases the legitimacy of reforms and instills a dynamic of change. The role of local organizations, community leaders, and citizen movements is vital for strengthening social cohesion and establishing horizontal governance. Mobilization at the regional and local levels helps to limit the concentration of risks in the capital, enabling management that is better adapted to the specific challenges of each territory. Local resilience must become the foundation for the reconstruction of the entire country, rather than a mere palliative in the face of crises. Economic challenges and the need for a new social contract in Madagascar

The disconnect between the Malagasy economy and politics is a major cause of recurring crises. The majority of the population lives in extreme poverty, while the state struggles to redistribute its resources to provide essential social services. To bridge this gap, it is becoming urgent to establish a

new social contract which guarantees equitable access to education, health, and employment. Reformed public policies, accompanied by a strengthened fight against corruption, are essential to restoring citizens’ trust and attracting sustainable investments. Institutional modernization must also prioritize transparency in the management of resources and development projects, particularly in mining and agriculture, as highlighted in the Toliara report.

Economic stability will also require better regulation of financial flows and diversification of revenue sources to avoid excessive dependence on a single sector.

Obstacles and the Path to Resilience in the Face of Crises in Madagascar Despite the diverse paths suggested for resolving the crisis, several major obstacles still hinder progress toward stability. Endemic corruption, institutional inertia, and persistent political rivalries prevent the effective implementation of reforms. Mistrust between elites and the population has increased, making any collective bargaining difficult. Madagascar’s resilience lies in its capacity to mobilize its vital forces and rely on a strengthened civil society. The implementation of a national resilience plan, integrating an educational, health, and economic strategy, would mitigate the severity of future crises. Furthermore, international cooperation, particularly with institutions such as the IMF, must shift towards aid policies focused on sustainability, rather than short-term palliative measures. The challenge is monumental, but it reminds us that Madagascar’s collective capacity to overcome its crises can still be strengthened. Frequently Asked Questions about Crisis Exit Scenarios in Madagascar

How can the cycle of systemic crises in Madagascar be broken?

It is essential to implement profound reforms in governance, transparency, and justice, while strengthening citizen participation and decentralizing power. Collective mobilization must be based on a long-term vision.

What political reforms could accelerate the stabilization of Madagascar?

A constitutional revision aimed at establishing stricter oversight mechanisms and greater independence for electoral and judicial institutions could be a key step in restoring trust and guaranteeing genuine democratic processes.

Which sectors can drive sustainable growth in Madagascar?

Agriculture, responsible extractive industries, cultural tourism, and new technologies have enormous potential if their development is guided by inclusive, transparent, and sustainable policies.

How can civil society be involved in crisis prevention?

By strengthening social dialogue, supporting local organizations, and facilitating citizen participation in decision-making, Madagascar can build a united front against its economic and social challenges. What role does the international community play in resolving the crises in Madagascar?

It must prioritize aid strategies focused on sustainable development, institutional reform, and the consolidation of political stability, while respecting national sovereignty.